Possible scenario
Interceptions Contain Attacks
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the current pattern: Houthi launches persist, but Saudi air defenses intercept most drones before they hit strategic targets. Riyadh maintains elevated readiness while avoiding a broader escalation beyond targeted counterstrikes in Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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