Possible scenario
Routine Federal Prosecution
55% Chance
The most likely path is a conventional federal threats case handled by the FBI and the U.S. Attorney's Office in Alabama. Prosecutors emphasize deterrence after recent threats against agents, but the case remains a localized criminal matter with little market relevance.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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