Possible scenario
Trial Proceeds Normally
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the Crown Prosecution Service continues with a conventional national-security prosecution while the defendants maintain not-guilty pleas. The case remains serious but legally contained, with evidence tested in court rather than triggering a broader UK-Iran crisis.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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