Possible scenario
Evidence Case Weakens
24% Chance
A plausible alternative is that parts of the prosecution case are weakened by disclosure limits, admissibility challenges, or difficulty proving direct Iranian state control. The men’s denials gain credibility if the case turns on circumstantial surveillance or communications evidence.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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