Possible scenario
GOP Stabilizes Late
20% Chance
Republicans respond to the poll by nationalizing turnout, reframing the election around inflation, immigration, and Democratic governance risks. Trump remains unpopular, but GOP candidates recover enough double-hater and reluctant Republican support to keep the map competitive.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.