Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
45% Chance
The WSJ poll proves to be part of a durable late-cycle swing against President Trump and the GOP. Double-haters, independents, and low-approval voters consolidate behind Democratic congressional candidates, making a Democratic House majority the most likely outcome.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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