Possible scenario
Partial Compliance Delays
20% Chance
The State Department says technical, staffing, or vetting-system constraints prevent a clean Oct. 18 restart. The court may accept a short delay if the agency provides a concrete schedule and avoids open defiance.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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