Split Government Holds

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Talarico’s win is historic but does not by itself hand Democrats governing power. Investors focus on continued gridlock, reduced odds of large fiscal packages, and only limited sector-specific implications.

What it moves

Energy+0.3%
Finance+0.2%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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