Possible scenario
Soft Landing Easing
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the housing decline becomes a disinflationary input rather than a financial crisis. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand treats lower house prices as evidence that tight policy has worked and begins preparing markets for gradual easing if inflation remains contained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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