Possible scenario
Prolonged Housing Slump
30% Chance
Home prices keep falling as elevated mortgage rates, weak affordability, and investor tax changes continue to weigh on demand. The downturn remains manageable but drags on consumer confidence, residential investment, and banks' mortgage growth.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Finance -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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