Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Disrupted
20% Chance
Further strikes hit Saudi energy infrastructure with varying degrees of operational disruption. Even limited damage would matter because recent attacks have targeted Aramco assets and major transport nodes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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