Possible scenario
Contained Cross-Border Fighting
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Houthi attacks and Saudi defensive strikes continue without a full regional war. The US travel advisory remains in place, but Washington, Riyadh, Oman, and the UN keep channels open to prevent a broader rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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