Possible scenario
Contained Security Breach
40% Chance
U.S. officials determine that the diverted F-35 components were sensitive but not sufficient to materially compromise the aircraft's stealth profile or mission systems. The Pentagon, Lockheed Martin, and UPS move into a controlled damage-assessment and recovery process, limiting market fallout.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- UPS-0.9%
- LMT-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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