Possible scenario
Confirmed Intelligence Loss
20% Chance
U.S. intelligence agencies conclude that Chinese authorities retained, inspected, or scanned the diverted F-35 parts before any possible return. The finding increases pressure on Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon to assess whether coatings, materials, or component geometry were compromised.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.7%
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- LMT-4.5%
- UPS-2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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