Possible scenario
Targeted Chinese Retaliation
20% Chance
Beijing responds with targeted measures designed to hurt politically visible UK exporters without triggering a full trade conflict. Retaliation is most likely to focus on UK-built autos, luxury goods, and possibly Scotch whisky, where China can apply pressure with limited domestic cost.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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