Possible scenario
Negotiated Tariff Pause
40% Chance
London and Beijing use the retaliation warning to create space for negotiations rather than immediately escalating. The UK still wants alignment with the EU on Chinese-made EVs, but officials may prefer a managed compromise to protect market access and avoid disruption to UK exporters.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- TSLA+0.6%
- STLA+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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