Possible scenario
Tactical Thaw Stalls
30% Chance
The Riyadh visit opens a channel, but neither side yields on Yemen influence, Red Sea positioning, or regional commercial rivalry. Relations improve in tone while operational distrust persists underneath.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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