Possible scenario
Broad Gulf Bargain
15% Chance
The Mansour visit becomes the opening step in a wider bargain covering Yemen, investment competition, and oil coordination. This is less likely than a limited thaw because it would require both Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed to restrain entrenched security and commercial interests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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