Possible scenario
Limited Sabotage Succeeds
25% Chance
Despite warnings, one or more low-level sabotage operations succeed against European logistics, telecom or energy infrastructure. The damage is limited and deniable, but the incident confirms that Russia's hybrid campaign is active and persistent.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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