Possible scenario
EU Hardens Response
25% Chance
The EU and NATO respond with tougher counterintelligence measures, infrastructure protection funding and additional sanctions against Russian intelligence-linked networks. This path is likely because Brussels has already framed hybrid attacks as a collective European security problem.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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