Possible scenario
Protests Broaden Nationally
28% Chance
The riot decree becomes a rallying point for student groups, cost-of-living protesters and left-wing unions, expanding demonstrations beyond the initial Milan unrest. The most likely broadening remains mostly organized and political, but the risk of renewed looting rises if police confrontations intensify.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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