Possible scenario
Decree Contains Unrest
45% Chance
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's cabinet decree, backed by Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi and reinforced Polizia di Stato and Carabinieri deployments, quickly reduces street disorder in Milan, Bologna and Turin. Arrests, curfews around commercial districts, and fast-track prosecutions deter further looting without triggering a broader national protest wave.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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