Possible scenario
Damage Contained
45% Chance
The Trump-aligned Republican group treats the photo error as a production mistake, pulls the faulty spot, and quickly substitutes corrected creative. Jonathan Nez and Democrats criticize the episode, but the race remains driven mainly by partisan fundamentals and turnout in Arizona's 2nd District.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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