From todayWhite House Considers Ousting Howard Lutnick Over Nvidia Export Oversight

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  40%

  −0.9%

  Lutnick Is Replaced

  The White House decides Howard Lutnick has become a political liability after reports that Nvidia H200 chips reached a blacklisted Chinese military-linked university. A replacement or acting Commerce secretary is installed with a mandate to show tougher export-control enforcement without fully abandoning Trump’s China sales framework.

  Technology −2.1% · Industrials +0.5%

• 

  30%

  +0.1%

  Lutnick Survives

  Trump decides against removing Lutnick, either because the revenue-share policy remains politically valuable or because firing him would imply a broader failure of White House oversight. Commerce announces procedural changes designed to absorb the controversy while preserving the H200 China sales program.

  Technology +0.3%

• 

  20%

  −0.3%

  Deal Is Reworked

  Rather than focus mainly on Lutnick, the White House reopens the December 2025 revenue-share arrangement that allowed Nvidia H200 sales to China. Officials try to preserve fee revenue while reducing the political cost of appearing lax on military-linked diversion.

  Technology −0.7%

• 

  10%

  −0.5%

  China Dispute Escalates

  The controversy spills into the broader U.S.-China technology dispute, with Beijing responding to possible U.S. enforcement by scrutinizing Nvidia or signaling limits on Chinese purchases of U.S. AI chips. This is less likely than a Washington-only personnel or compliance outcome, but the recent diversion reports create room for both capitals to harden their positions.

  Technology −1.2% · Non-Energy Materials +0.4%