Possible scenario
Threat Stays Rhetorical
40% Chance
Ben-Gvir uses the threat to satisfy his base and reinforce pressure on the Israel Prison Service, but the government avoids an irreversible step. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, the Shin Bet, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are likely to argue that any killing or execution outside a formal court process would expose Israel to severe legal and diplomatic costs.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.