Possible scenario
Capital Case Advances
25% Chance
The government tries to convert Ben-Gvir's threat into a formal legal test of the Knesset's March 2026 terrorist death-penalty statute. The process moves slowly because retroactivity, evidentiary standards, and Supreme Court review create obstacles even for a high-profile Hamas prisoner convicted over mass-casualty attacks.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.