Possible scenario
Political Retreat
20% Chance
The White House or Trump allies attempt to reframe the arrest call as political rhetoric or a reference to civil litigation. This de-escalates the immediate legal threat while preserving the broader conflict with major media outlets.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- NYT-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.