Possible scenario
Limited Federal Probe
25% Chance
The administration channels Trump's demand into subpoenas, leak inquiries, or document requests rather than an actual arrest. This fits the prior pattern of subpoenas against Times reporters and creates meaningful legal pressure without an immediate constitutional crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Tickers
- NYT-3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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