Possible scenario
Managed Riyadh Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi authorities keep Riyadh schools online and maintain heightened airport security, but the disruption remains concentrated around aviation and public safety protocols. Houthi threats continue, yet Saudi air defenses and operational adjustments prevent a broader economic shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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