Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly US envoys press both sides to avoid further strikes on civilian aviation. A narrow pause focused on airports and schools is plausible because both Riyadh and the Houthis may want to avoid a costlier escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.