Possible scenario
Major Oil Disruption
20% Chance
A follow-on strike causes temporary but visible damage to Saudi energy infrastructure, forcing Aramco to curtail exports or reroute flows. The 2019 Abqaiq precedent keeps traders highly sensitive to any confirmed loss of Saudi barrels, lifting crude and volatility sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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