Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Disruption
40% Chance
Houthi attacks continue at a lower tempo, keeping insurers and airlines cautious, but Saudi air defenses prevent a major new hit on energy facilities. Brent remains above pre-attack levels as traders price a persistent risk premium rather than a full supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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