Possible scenario
Reversal Contains Fallout
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that MAGA Inc.'s replacement of taxpayer funding blunts the immediate legal and political damage. DHS frames the episode as an administrative error or contracting misclassification, while watchdog scrutiny continues without producing a fast-moving market-relevant crisis.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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