Possible scenario
Legal Enforcement Path
18% Chance
Outside groups pursue formal legal and regulatory complaints alleging that taxpayer funds were used for campaign-style promotion. Enforcement is plausible but would likely move through civil, administrative, or injunction-focused channels rather than immediate criminal charges.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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