Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
A breakdown remains a material risk because the prior timeline includes steep retaliatory tariffs, AI curbs, and unresolved chip policy. If either side frames the visit as unsuccessful, markets would quickly price higher trade-policy risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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