Possible scenario
Limited Trade Truce
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a managed de-escalation that preserves leverage for both leaders while lowering near-term market risk. Trump and Xi have incentives to show progress after years of tariffs, AI controls, and delayed chip measures without committing to a full structural settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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