Possible scenario
Israel Ties Strained
18% Chance
The episode creates a short-lived diplomatic problem if Israeli officials are shown to have discussed cash gifts with a U.S. official holding top secret clearance. Both governments try to prevent the issue from affecting Gaza diplomacy, military aid, or intelligence sharing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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