Possible scenario
Ethics Case Contained
45% Chance
The most likely path is an internal State Department and inspector general process focused on whether the aide violated gift, clearance, or reporting rules. Mike Huckabee remains ambassador, and the White House frames the retraction as evidence that no foreign cash changed hands.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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