Possible scenario
Compliance Path Emerges
22% Chance
Regulators and courts avoid a broad shutdown and instead move toward a clearer compliance framework for crypto-linked prediction markets. This would align with the court decision backing Kalshi and the CFTC's approval of U.S. bitcoin perpetual futures.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
- COIN+1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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