Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic Standoff
30% Chance
Moscow provides little or no substantive information and frames the U.S. request as political interference. Quarantines continue locally, but there is still no verified evidence of spread outside the affected hospitals and lab network.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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