Possible scenario
Tehran Retaliates
22% Chance
Iran treats the Starlink episode as part of an Israeli-U.S. regime-change campaign and responds through arrests, signal jamming, cyber operations, or proxy pressure. This path raises near-term geopolitical risk without necessarily reaching open war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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