Possible scenario
Defections Accelerate
24% Chance
The Starlink gesture helps convert existing covert channels into a more visible defection pipeline. Even a handful of credible defectors from Iran's nuclear, cyber, or security apparatus would sharpen Israeli and U.S. intelligence and raise Tehran's internal threat perception.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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