Possible scenario
Managed Hezbollah Retrenchment
27% Chance
Hezbollah avoids open confrontation with the Lebanese state but also resists full demilitarization. The movement leans on Amal, municipal networks, and religious institutions to preserve influence while reducing its visible armed footprint.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Tickers
- ESLT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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