Possible scenario
Contained Attack Confirmed
30% Chance
Saudi Arabia partially reverses its denial and acknowledges that security forces stopped a suspect near the Grand Mosque, while stressing there was no successful detonation. The political and market impact remains limited because there are no mass casualties and the holy site stays open.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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