Possible scenario
Attribution Escalates Tensions
15% Chance
The incident becomes geopolitically more consequential if Saudi officials or allied intelligence services identify a transnational network. Markets react more strongly if the suspected perpetrators are tied to ISIS remnants or to Iranian-linked actors during an already tense Hajj year.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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