Possible scenario
Controls Intensify
20% Chance
The DeepSeek-Huawei effort convinces U.S. officials that existing export controls are not slowing China's AI hardware progress enough. Washington responds with tighter restrictions on advanced chipmaking tools, EDA software, HBM access or China-specific accelerator designs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
Tickers
- NVDA-3.9%
- SNPS-1.1%
- -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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