Possible scenario
Fiscal Policy Response
20% Chance
Treasury's rejection may be followed by a more substantive policy response if officials want to neutralize the IMF narrative. That response could range from technical clarification to early budget negotiations with Congress.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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