Possible scenario
Bond Market Pushback
25% Chance
A less benign outcome is that the Treasury response draws more attention to U.S. borrowing needs. Investors demand a slightly higher term premium, especially if auction demand looks soft or foreign participation is questioned.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Utilities -0.7%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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