Possible scenario
Demand Weakness Emerges
20% Chance
High prices and slower industrial activity begin to curb consumption, particularly in China, Europe and fuel-sensitive emerging markets. The inventory warning remains serious, but traders shift focus toward demand destruction rather than an uncontrolled supply squeeze.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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