Possible scenario
Contained Test Failure
20% Chance
The mission launches but fails to complete the planned orbital profile, with the vehicle lost during ascent, stage separation, engine relight, or reentry. The failure is significant but remains within expected test-program risk and does not cause major third-party damage.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.6%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-5.7%
- RKLB+0.9%
- PL-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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